The second round of the M4 International Forecasting Competition was submitted for the March 31, 2011 deadline. For those who can’t wait ‘til the spring 2012 results, we’ve been comparing the StatGuide algorithm to the published results of the 2000 M3 Competition and have been amazed at the results.Read more...
We discovered a mathematical technique that pulls meaningful trend insight from often chaotic historical data. We developed this technique into a robust algorithm behind an easy to use Excel Add in formula.
Historical data are often complex and subject to interpretation, yet you need a robust forecast without endless dithering over exponents, coefficients, or confidence intervals. If you had more time you might conduct a complex multiple regression against various business factors, but is that realistic when you have hundreds of parts in your inventory model, or dozens of departments to budget?
The StatGuide Add-in for Excel can deliver row after row of results that consistently beat the cumbersome statistical models.
Our Excel Add-in will look familiar to any user with modest spreadsheet skills. Simply enter “=SGForecast()”, highlight the historical data and you’re well on your way to a better forecast than you ever imagined. Like any Excel function, you can copy the StatGuide formula to row after row of historical data.
Our tests show the StatGuide algorithm provides superior performance over established statistical methods. Make your own evaluation with our full-featured free trial. We are currently working to prove our case with independent validation by participating in the M4 International Competition for Forecasters.
We applied the established mathematics of linear regression, seasonality, and statistical sampling with a novel twist. We put that proprietary math behind a simple Excel Add-in creating a formula that is easy to use and reliable. It’s simple, yet incorporates a unique twist make dramatic improvements.